Weekly Pick’em
Week 12
The last week of the regular season is here and with it comes a lot of bittersweet thoughts. This Samford team rolled into the season with lofty expectations and enough returning pieces to make you think they could make it work again. Fast forward 3 months and our offensive line never jelled like it needed to, the secondary was burnt so regularly that if it were a fresh piece of wood to start the season it is now an ashy piece of charcoal, the d-line had fantastic moments but was inconsistent and too regularly could not get off run blocks, and our All-American QB simply could not repeat a historic performance from a season ago. Do not get me wrong, the goal line stands, blocked field goals, Chandler Smith and the WR corp embarrassing dudes, and Jay Stanton breaking off clutch runs created some wonderful moments during the season. But it was overall a season to forget.
Elsewhere in the SoCon, a dramatic finish to the season is building. Furman has clinched, but Mercer, UTC, and WCU are all looking to the committee for an at-large bid. We will find out Sunday who will prevail but it is frankly an impossible decision (unless UTC pulls off the stunner and beats Bama). There is no way we get 4 teams in given our non-conference performance but each of these teams deserves a bid. WCU has one of the best O-Lines in the country, Mercer’s D-Line is ferocious and they have two incredible WRs, and UTC is a balanced team with plenty of athletes at key positions. So, get your popcorn ready to see how the drama unfolds.
UT Martin at Samford: UT Martin -7.5
Mike: Samford
Grant: Again, which Samford team shows up? We still have not beaten a team with a winning record. This being the last home game for 29 seniors I believe they will keep the game very close and could win. This UT-Martin secondary is susceptible to the pass if Hiers has enough time to make plays downfield. If Samford loses by more than 10 is it time to call Jimbo Fisher? Something to think about…- Samford
Sam: I love how Grant keeps asking “which Samford team will show up”. I know he is on the sideline every game, but man, do I need to get him some glasses? I see the same dang team each week- undisciplined, spotty tacklers, poor pass blockers but with some incredible athletes sprinkled in to make us all believe each week. So, once again let’s ride the with the Dogs in the last game of the year. UT-Martin is a terrible match-up for us given their rushing attack but who cares? In betting you win some and lose most so let’s go out on top with another L- Samford
Jeb: Samford
UTC at Alabama: Alabama -38.5
Mike: UTC
Grant: Alabama playing another SoCon school that is not Samford and they have not played another in-state school since 1944 (aside from Auburn). It will be “close” in the first half but Bama will pull away. Give us some money for once Alabama- Bama
Sam: Rollllllllll Tide Roll… if UTC did not have a potential playoff berth awaiting them next week I would pick the Mocs. But we are going to get a masterclass in injury avoidance today from UTC. One so impressive the NBA will be taking notes for their “load management” strategies. UTC has everything to lose and nothing to gain by fighting hard against Bama so give me the Tide big- Bama
Jeb: Bama
Furman at Wofford: Furman -20
Mike: Furman
Grant: Furman could still improve their national seeding and with this game being at home, it will not be close. Wofford got their win so they are all set for the year-Furman
Sam: Wofford sucks and Furman does not. 20 points different though? Yeah. As the great Bob Stoops would say “style matters” and with a national seed on the line Furman will be trying to impress the committee after some inconsistent play down the stretch. Plus it is against a hated rival so all the more reason to pummel them- Furman
Jeb: Furman
WCU at VMI: WCU -13.5
Mike: WCU
Grant: This one is very interesting, lose and WCU is out of the playoffs. That would be pretty funny after they were flying high at the start of the year. VMI is playing solid football but I do not think they will win. However, 13.5 is a high number for VMI at home- VMI
Sam: VMI let me down last week but I want to see WCU fall apart so badly. So I am rolling the dice again with ol’ Rocco- VMI
Jeb: WCU
Citadel at ETSU: ETSU -14.5
Mike: Citadel
Grant: Can The Citadel get that first win? I do not think ETSU should be favored by 2 scores over anyone, even though the Bulldogs are still “not a very good football team” per Coach Drayton. I like the backdoor cover potential so let’s go Bulldogs- Citadel
Sam: Citadel ain’t winning today, tomorrow, or the rest of the year… oh wait it is the last game of the year. ETSU is not good either but they have enough athletes to make the difference. As Grant said though, two scores is a lot but I am feeling the Bucs, especially after the big basketball win over Davidson. Look for young WR Xavier Gaillardetz to be the difference maker in this one- ETSU
Jeb: ETSU
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Week 11
The season is flying by… unfortunately, Furman has clinched the conference with two weeks to spare. WCU weathered the storm and looks to build a small winning streak to snag an at-large bid to the playoffs. UTC is off this week which allows them to regroup before taking on… Alabama lol. The interesting thing for the Mocs is their playoff resume is set. Will it be enough for the voters to include them? Other than those three schools mentioned above, Mercer is the last playoff contender. They have a huge game against us today. Win and they increase their playoff odds dramatically, lose and they are done. Let’s be real, the only game we are looking forward to is Wofford at Citadel… not. But hey, at least basketball season is here, right?
Samford at Mercer: Mercer -4.5
Mike: Samford
Grant: Which Samford team shows up? Is it the team that beats the bad teams or the team that cannot finish against good opponents? The Bulldogs have yet to beat a team with a winning record. I honestly do not know what to expect as Samford has a tough matchup against WR Ty James. They will keep it close but Mercer covers- Mercer
Sam: I really want to pick Samford. But Mercer actually has something to play for. It is on the road and Mercer’s offense is humming. Samford could win this game if they avoid the ill-timed penalties and turnovers. Otherwise, Mercer should win a tight one- Mercer
Jeb: Samford
ETSU at WCU: WCU -13.5
Mike: WCU
Grant: Western cannot lose this one and make the playoffs, so they need to show up. With this game being at home I think WCU will get out to a hot start- WCU
Sam: I was surprised to say the least about WCU’s performance against Wofford last week. This team should have dominated. ETSU is not much better but they are certainly better. I have a sinking feeling this Catamount team has lost their edge and if they drop one more could see themselves on the outside looking in. Give me the Bucs to cover- ETSU
Jeb: WCU
VMI at Furman: Furman -24
Mike: VMI
Grant: Furman will be a top 4 seed in the playoffs as they have already clinched the conference. However, I am not sure FU’s QB Tyler Huff will play. VMI is playing good football so give me the Keydets to cover- VMI
Sam: This is an intriguing match-up. VMI’s offense came alive last week but the defense looked less stifling. Furman obviously has the talent advantage and should win easily. But 24 points? Give me Rocco- VMI
Jeb: Furman
Wofford at Citadel: Wofford -2.5
Mike: Citadel
Grant: Well somebody has to win this game. One of two matchups in the country with both teams being winless. As much as I make fun of The Citadel for not being a very good football team, Wofford is just as bad. I’d love the Bulldogs to get a win because of my disdain for Wofford- Citadel
Sam: The “Battle of the Bottom” according to FCS Reddit. Which team is worse? Has to be Citadel right? This game has watching paint dry all over it. The SoCon has finally found a way to emulate a Big 10 game. Pit two terrible teams against each other, make it look competitive and then convince everyone they really are not as bad as you think.- Wofford
Jeb: Citadel
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Week 10
Wow, how the mighty Catamounts have fallen. Lucky for them the last three games of the year are absolute cake walks. I mentioned last week that they might drop a second in a row but do not expect that trend to continue against the Terriers. Mercer is traveling to the Citadel and should waltz right through to set up a big game against Samford next week. VMI finally hits the road again and is headed to the mountains of East Tennessee. The scenery is certainly more beautiful than their brand of football but hey, Rocco has that team fighting for every inch. Having come up just short against what would have been a huuuge upset against the Mocs the Keydets look to be building something. But all of that aside… the most unfortunate part of the week, aside from us not being able to watch Chandler Smith smoke dudes, is we have to watch Furman and UTC duke it out for the SoCon title. UTC clinches if they win since this is their last conference game. Furman will not be able to clinch until they beat VMI and maybe Wofford (not sure if 1 more is enough). Neither team is looking like they are playing at the level they would want so it truly is a toss up- hence the 1.5 spread. UTC almost dropped one to VMI and Furman won an ugly game against ETSU. Get your popcorn ready, enjoy the great trench battles, and marvel at how much more athletic UTC will look yet how unable they will be to capitalize against the Paladins. Tune in Sunday for the Women’s Soccer SoCon Title game to catch our Dogs in action.
Furman at UTC: UTC-1.5
Mike: UTC
Grant: The winner of the Chattanooga game gets the auto bid to the playoffs (essentially for Furman). Even though they are on the road, I do not see FU losing this one as their roll through the conference continues- Furman
Sam: I picked Furman over WCU even though WCU looked like the team of destiny. They are a veteran group with an identity and enough playmakers on both sides to make a nice run in the playoffs. UTC is always loaded but the culture is not the same. They always choke… until they don’t. The Mocs finally turn around their late-season collapses and clinch the SoCon title today- UTC
Jeb: Furman
Mercer at Citadel: Mercer -19
Mike: Mercer
Grant: Citadel is again not a very good football team. They are at home but, I cannot in my right mind pick the bulldogs as they have not shown me any reason to- Mercer
Sam: Mercer has done the unthinkable… managed to find a consistent offense once conference play started. They are coming off a huge 45-point outing against WCU so the good times are going to keep on rolling. They have tended to play down to their competition however and 19 points is a lot. It is less about how bad Citadel is and more about my apprehension Mercer will not play down to their competition- Citadel
Jeb: Mercer
VMI at ETSU: ETSU -6.5
Mike: ETSU
Grant: This one is tough. VMI almost beat UTC last week and are playing good football. I like what VMI is building so give me the Keydets- VMI
Sam: The line is odd. On one hand, ETSU struggles to generate points consistently, especially against good defenses. On the other, VMI does too… against any defense for that matter. But, in a game like this I am going to pick the team with the best overall unit and that is VMI with their defense- VMI
Jeb: VMI
WCU at Wofford: WCU -15.5
Mike: WCU
Grant: WCU is coming off a two game losing streak after heading into Furman, they felt they could win the conference. This is a get-right game as they should finish the regular season undefeated to get into the playoffs. Also, Wofford is really bad. Very Bad- WCU
Sam: The line looked a little thin given the fact Wofford has only scored 20 or more points once (in a loss to Presbyterian who does not give athletic scholarships) and for the most part is held to 10 or less. So, give me the Catamounts run game all day. It is going to be a lot more than a 15-point win, or at least it should be…- WCU
Jeb: WCU
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Week 9
Week 9 presents an interesting slate. Only one game has a point spread under 10 points and UTC is headed up to Lexington in what looks like the only trap game of the week. Citadel and ETSU just do not pose enough of a threat on either side of the ball do do anything. But VMI’s defense has an upset in them. Mercer’s season comes down to this game. They still have playoff hopes and a win against a top 10 team would be a huge statement. But who knows, WCU is coming off a deflating game and could very well drop a second in a row.
Citadel at Samford: Samford -25.5
Mike: Samford
Grant: See our game prediction story as this will not be close- Samford
Sam: Maurice Drayont gave an uncomfortable vibe at Media Day over the summer and has since gone on to field a terrible team. No one likes a loser mentality coupled with a loser team. Citadel has no heart, no fight, and no talent… at least according to their coach- Samford
Jeb: Samford
UTC at VMI: UTC -21
Mike: VMI
Grant: VMI probably will not hold UTC scoreless in the second half like they did Samford. Too much UTC and give me the Mocs- UTC
Sam: UTC will most likely win easily… but the bus ride is not for everyone. Rocco’s team played valiantly last week against the Dogs and I would expect another spirited effort this week. UTC is prone to drop games later in the season so let’s roll the dice- VMI
Jeb: UTC
ETSU at Furman: Furman -19
Mike: Furman
Grant: Furman will still be feeling high after their big win last weekend. However, as we have seen with FBS teams after big games, there is not that same intensity the next week. Give me ETSU- ETSU
Sam: I am tempted to take the Bucs given the spread and Furman’s play style… but I am thinking the opposite of Grant. I think Furman will be just fine at home and come out swinging to put them down early- Furman
Jeb: Furman
Mercer at WCU: WCU -7.5
Mike: WCU
Grant: WCU will be angry after losing their biggest game of the year last week. If this number was double digits I would go Mercer but it is not, so give me WCU- WCU
Sam: I really wish we could have seen a Fred Flavors run offense in this years edition of the SoCon but he is gone… and with him Mercer’s hope of a playoff. Their hardest games of the year happen to come at the end so they have lived this false hope all season. WCU will roll- WCU
Jeb: WCU
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Week 8
Coming off a disappointing week 7 that officially ended any hope of playoff football for the Bulldogs, week 8 at least has a nationally relevant conference game in Furman at WCU. UTC and technically Mercer are still playing for playoff hopes, but all eyes will be on Cullowhee. The Furman at WCU game is a matchup between two top 10 teams in the country and will be a great battle. Fortunately for us, we have VMI.
Samford at VMI: Samford -12.5
Mike: Samford to win but VMI to cover- VMI
Grant: As mentioned in my game prediction, the VMI defense is good but the offense is not. I do not think they will be able to keep up with the Samford offense- Samford
Sam: Go read the game preview- Samford
Jeb: Samford
Furman at WCU: WCU -3.5
Mike: WCU
Grant: The game of the week in the FCS and it should be a very exciting one. Western is the Samford of 2023 and with the game at home, I expect them to win. However, Furman can keep it close and with the half point hook give me FU to cover- Furman
Sam: A tough battle in the trenches will be the deciding factor in the game. Who is going to create more running room for the team’s elite rush attacks? Who will provide their QB with more time? Probably WCU… I said it on the pod but after stewing on it all week I think the Furman team is too experienced, ready for the biggest game in WCU history, and has a better defense than the Catamounts- Furman
Jeb: WCU
ETSU at UTC: UTC -16
Mike: UTC
Grant: ETSU bounced back last week in part because they played Wofford. I still think UTC can cover even if there is a good backdoor cover potential here. Chattanooga needs to keep pace to stay within shouting distance of the league title. I think they roll- UTC
Sam: In what looks like an easy pick with UTC, the 16-point spread scares me. Especially considering it is a rivalry game and UTC is prone to lay an egg or two each year. My gut is saying pick the Bucs but no- UTC
Jeb: UTC
Wofford at Mercer: -19.5
Mike: Mercer
Grant: Not much to this one as Wofford es muy no bueno. Mercer put up 38 on VMI and they will roll here at home- Mercer
Sam: Wofford is straight-up bad. I don’t think they will go winless, but on the road against a good opponent… no way- Mercer
Jeb: Mercer
—————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Week 7
Coming off a big Week 6 that saw Samford extend its winning streak over Wofford to nine and WCU winning a thriller on the road against the Mocs, this week is even bigger. The oldest rivalry in the conference kicks off with VMI traveling to the Citadel, Furman travels to Samford in a game circled since the beginning of the season, and UTC goes on the road to Mercer trying to rebound after the dramatic loss last weekend. We made our picks below against the spread.
Furman at Samford- Furman favored by 9.5 points
Mike: Furman to cover but tempted to take Samford. I love the back-to-back wins leading up to this game but until we compete against a real team I cannot pick Samford- Furman
Grant: I fully believe that Samford can cover and possibly win outright if they limit the turnovers- Samford
Sam: A clean, disciplined game is the key to victory for the dogs. But Furman has had this game circled since the controversial game finished last season… Furman wins but does not cover- Samford
Jeb: Furman
VMI at Citadel- VMI favored by 2.5 points
Mike: VMI to cover and I’d bet my mortgage on this one. Shocked it is only a 2.5 spread on this one. I may have to open a Draft Kings account just for this game! Citadel scores two touchdowns on Furman and all of a sudden they can compete? I have more faith in Rocco- VMI
Grant: VMI is not great but Citadel is awful and will probably go winless- VMI
Sam: A great rivalry always brings some level of unpredictableness but VMI’s defense is pretty decent. I tend to lean better defense in a rivalry game so give me VMI and Rocco all day- VMI
Jeb: VMI
Wofford at ETSU- ETSU favored by 2.5 points
Mike: Wofford but this one is tough. They are due a win at some point and this is one of their last shots- Wofford
Grant: Speaking of awful, that’s what Wofford is so we are riding with ETSU- ETSU
Sam: I thought ETSU was bad when we escaped a closer-than-expected win, but Wofford was next-level bad. ETSU all day- ETSU
Jeb: ETSU
UTC at Mercer- Mercer favored by 4 points
Mike: UTC has played well all season, has the second best QB in the conference, and all the supporting pieces. It is a crucial game if either of these teams wants a shot at the SoCon title- UTC
Grant: UTC lost in a heartbreaker last week but they will bounce back and maybe win outright in Macon- UTC
Sam: Mercer’s offense has been disappointing so far this year. I do not see them finally finding some rhythm against the Mocs- UTC
Jeb: UTC