SoCon Tournament Preview
This is March. It is officially the best and most stressful time of the sports calendar. For the vast majority of mid-major basketball, the margin for error is officially gone. Samford rolls into Asheville as the number one seed in the Southern Conference for the first time in school history. They finished the regular season at 26-5 which is the most wins in program history.
Other milestones were reached such as the number of home wins (18) and the most points in a single game (134). Those were all incredible feats but those are regular season accomplishments. The new season starts on Saturday against the Friday night winner of Mercer and The Citadel.
As the one seed, Samford is the betting favorite. However, this conference tournament is unpredictable. Well you can say that for almost every mid-major tournament. Samford should be 100% healthy which has not been the case much this season. The SoCon Tournament will be a wild ride. Let’s get into how Samford books their ticket into the Big Dance and maybe how they don’t.
How Samford Wins
Samford wins by imposing their will on both ends of the floor. According to KenPom, Samford finished first in offensive efficiency and second in defensive efficiency. These Bulldogs can score at will while also turning you over at an extremely high rate. Samford forced almost 300 turnovers in conference play. The next closest team in that category is UNCG at 216. Samford wins by continuing to force turnovers which lead to easy baskets.
On offense, Samford has to find ways to score consistently in the half court. On possessions where they cannot get out and run in transition, they have to find a way to make offense happen. Having a skilled and experienced point guard like Rylan Jones helps this team find success. Also if Samford is hitting their threes, then this tournament is a wrap.
Samford finished second in three-point percentage at 39.6%. Jaden Campbell had a great February and he will be a major key down the stretch. Samford does not lose when Campbell is on. In two of Samford’s three SoCon losses, Campbell combined for four total points (he did not play against Wofford).
AJ Staton-McCray did not play in the final four games of the regular season. Does he come in and flow into the game early? His work on the defensive end will be extremely important. Samford can roll out a deadly closing five of Rylan Jones, Jaden Campbell, AJ Staton-McCray, Jermaine Marshall and Achor Achor. No other team in this tournament can compete with that closing five.
If those five can play consistent minutes together, then watch out. Nathan Johnson and Garrett Hicks, two senior leaders, have also been big contributors. Look for them to be called upon in key spots and if they deliver, then well good luck.
How Samford loses
Samford loses if they cannot get stops on defense and cannot rebound. Samford sits near the bottom in multiple rebounding categories including rebounding margin and allowing offensive rebounds. This has been an issue for this team this season. In March, when everything is magnified, Samford loses by losing the rebounding battle.
We have pointed this out in past Bucky Ball: By The Numbers stories. Allowing more offensive rebounds equals more possessions, equals a better chance for your opponent to create momentum. Momentum is real, especially in March.
This also goes without saying but Samford loses by not locking in defensively. This is extremely important especially with potentially tired legs when we get to a potential Monday night championship game. Staton-McCray’s return along with Marshall on the floor, Samford has to bring the energy. We know for sure Marshall brings it.
Samford finished in the middle of the SoCon in opponent field goal percentage. This coaching staff should have these guys prepared on this end. If Samford cannot get consistent stops, then it does not matter how many points you score.
Tournament Game Predictions (All Times Central Standard Time)
First Round - March 8
8. Mercer (15-16, 8-10) vs. 9. The Citadel (11-20, 3-15) – 4 p.m. on ESPN+
My pick: Mercer
7. East Tennessee State (16-15, 8-10) vs. 10. VMI (4-27, 1-17) – 6:30 p.m. on ESPN+
My pick- ETSU
Quarterfinals – Sat., Mar. 9
1. Samford (26-5, 15-3) vs. 8. Mercer – 11:00am on ESPN+
Mercer has been playing extremely well as of late so they should get past The Citadel. Mercer got the best of Samford in Macon thanks in part to 27 points from Mercer’s Jalyn McCreary. The Bears also had 58 points in the paint. I fully expect Samford to not let that happen again. Also these coaches and most of these players remember the early exit in 2023. There is plenty of motivation to not let that happen again.
My pick: Samford
2. UNC Greensboro (21-10, 12-6) vs. 7. East Tennessee State – 1:30 p.m. on ESPN+
My pick: UNCG
3. Chattanooga (20-11, 12-6) vs. 6. Wofford (17-14, 10-8) – 5 p.m. on ESPN+
My pick: Chattanooga
4. Western Carolina (22-9, 11-7) vs. 5. Furman (16-15, 10-8) – 7:30 p.m. on ESPN+
This is the best game of the first round, fitting that it is the final game of the day. The winner gets Samford, who does Samford want? Furman has March standout JP Pegues and Western Carolina has the SoCon Player of the Year in Vonterious Woolbright. Oddly enough, Samford might rather want Western Carolina who they swept in the regular season. Anything to avoid Furman so, I think? the Catamounts find a way.
My pick: Western Carolina
Semifinals – Sun. Mar. 10
1 Samford vs. 4 Western Carolina – 3pm on ESPNU
Samford matches up well against Western as Achor Achor was unstoppable in both regular season matchups. He combined for 53 points in two games. In those games, Samford did a great job limiting every other Catamount which is key. They have the defenders to handle Woolbright and the Catamounts. As the saying goes, it is hard to beat a team three times. However Western did not have to see Jermaine Marshall in that first game, he will be the other difference maker.
My pick: Samford
2 UNC Greensboro vs. 3 Chattanooga – 5:30 p.m. on ESPNU
My pick: Chattanooga
Championship – Mon. Mar. 11
1 Samford vs. 3 Chattanooga – 6 p.m. on ESPN
We went chalk with almost all of our predictions so let’s say that Honor Huff and Trey Bonham catch fire and take down the UNCG Spartans. This is another matchup for Samford in which they swept the regular season. Chattanooga could not handle Samford’s defense in the second matchup as Samford did very well on Huff and Bonham.
Look for Jermaine Marshall to put up 15+ points and Jaden Campbell to knock down some big late threes. Samford uses their length once again to stymie the small guards of Chattanooga en route to their first ever Southern Conference Tournament title.
My pick: Samford
Samford is the best team in this tournament, hands down. They have the most complete offense and play good enough defense to win. Don’t forget, Samford went 6-0 against the two through four seeds. Samford has never won a SoCon title let alone make the conference title game. However, this team is different and ready for the challenge thanks to experienced players and a great coach.
This is March, so it will be intense and nerve racking. We wouldn’t want it any other way.
