Bucky Ball: Non-Conference Takeaways
2025 is just a few days away and Samford basketball is ready to defend their conference title from a season ago. Samford is 10-3 on the season as those three losses include two to Power 4 opponents, Michigan State and Arizona, plus a buzzer beater at Cornell. For the third time in the last four seasons, Samford heads into Southern Conference play with double-digit wins.
Through the non-conference season, two SoCon teams sit in their own tier and those two teams are Samford and Furman (expect anything different?). KenPom currently projects both teams to finish within a game of each other in conference play splitting the season series. ETSU is off to a slow 7-6 start and Chattanooga has battled injuries as they sit at 8-5. Both Samford-Furman games will be must watch viewing. We have almost a month to go before then however.
Right now, Christmas break is over as Samford is back on campus practicing getting ready for the SoCon opener on New Year’s Day at home against The Citadel. Before then, we examine the positives and the negatives to take away from the non-conference slate and what needs to be corrected in conference play.
Positives
Scoring Offense (89.0 PPG)
The high flying scoring offense for Bucky Ball is in full effect once again. Samford is averaging 89.0 points per game which is second in the entire country behind just Kentucky (89.1 PPG). These Bulldogs have four players averaging double digit points with Trey Fort leading the way with 14.7 points per game and Jaden Brownell averaging 14.2 per game. Brownell has done extremely well replacing the scoring of Achor Achor from last season.
Samford has just had one game scoring under 70 points this season and have seven games scoring 90 or more points. Everyone is contributing at different times and it can be someone else’s night every time out. Samford can score with the best of them and if there’s one thing we know about Samford in Bucky McMillan’s tenure, points are coming in bunches.
Assists Per Game (18.7 APG), Total Assists (243)
This Samford team is excelling in sharing the basketball much like last season. The team’s 18.7 assists per game is good for 11th in the entire country and 243 total assists is second in the nation. It helps when Samford has point guard Rylan Jones, one of the most cerebral basketball players in the country, leading this offense. Jones is 14th in the country in assist to turnover ratio.
Samford’s offense is predicated on good ball movement and making sure it is constantly moving it looking for the best shot. This offense is at it’s best when it is sharing the basketball and Samford excels at doing just that.
Turnovers Forced (17.6 per game); Steals (10.8 per game)
Samford may be struggling on the defensive end (heads up that’s a negative) but they are doing well in forcing turnovers. No one else in the country plays this press style like Samford does in creating chaos for opposing teams and that was not more evident in the two wins in the Thanksgiving MTE. The Bulldogs rank third in the country in turnovers forced and steals per game.
Rylan Jones and Josh Holloway lead the way with 25 steals and Isaiah West has 17 steals. Bucky McMillan has leaned on Holloway and West especially when mixing and matching his best five for certain “we need a defensive stop” game situations. Samford is going to play their way and not many teams in the country can keep up with them for all 40 minutes. It’s just a matter of time before they break (see the North Dakota State comeback win).
Here is where Samford ranks in the country in these other stats.
3 Point % - 39.6% - 15th
Bench PPG: 33.9 - 15th
Fast break points: 16.3 - 14th
Negatives
Scoring Defense (77.8 PPG), KenPom Defensive Rating (111.1)
When it’s not forcing turnovers, Samford is really struggling playing defense in the half court. Samford is allowing 77.8 PPG which is 319th in the country (Alabama is just ranked 305th and they are a top 10 team). The Bulldogs KenPom defensive rating ranks 275th in the country. While where Samford sits is not good, they do play games with a lot of possessions and therefore opponents get more opportunities.
Last year, Samford finished 122nd in KenPom defensive rating and needs different guys on this team to step up. A lot is put on the shoulders of Collin Holloway and Jaden Brownell on the defensive end. Per EvanMiya’s defensive performance rating, Holloway has the lowest defensive rating when he is on the floor with enough minutes to qualify. That has to be better and should be given the lack of overall size in the SoCon (I mean like Arizona and Michigan State size).
Rebounding (23.0 Defensive RPG), KenPom Rebounding % (36.7%)
Sticking on the defensive end, Samford has struggled for another season in the rebounding department. Their 23 defensive rebounds per game sits at 315th in the country and the rebounding percentage is 345th per KenPom. This non-conference season, Samford cut down on the turnovers but still had problems rebounding on the defensive end. Collin Holloway leads with 4.4 rebounds per game and Jaden Brownell gets 4.2 rebounds per game.
In their 13 games, Samford has been out-rebounded six times and tied Michigan State in rebounds oddly enough. Through non-conference play, Samford sits ninth in rebounding among SoCon teams but sits second in offensive rebounding. This improved last year during conference play so we will see whether this improves albeit with different personnel than a season ago.
When it comes to the schedule, Samford has a softer start compared to others. Here are the first five SoCon games for the Bulldogs.
Vs The Citadel
At Western Carolina
Vs VMI
Vs UNCG
At Mercer
These five games are before Samford starts their toughest stretch of the season starting with hosting ETSU on Saturday, January 18th. Samford has the tools and pieces necessary to repeat but will they? The other nine conference teams will give the reigning champs their best shot twice this season. It is up to Samford to build off of these strengths and find ways to improve on their weaknesses.
