Bucky Ball: By The Numbers (SoCon Round 1)
We are officially through the first round of Southern Conference regular season play. Samford sits all alone atop the SoCon standings at 8-1. The Bulldogs extended their winning streak to 17 which was then the nation’s longest, before losing at Furman. Samford also still sits in the top 100 in the country in KenPom (95).
This is the point in the conference season where things get exciting. Teams are starting to figure each other out, we get to find out the teams that are separating. Who can stand out among the rest in this difficult conference will be great theater. For Samford, yes the winning streak is over. The Furman loss is in the past, no need to let it linger. You could just take out your frustration like I did.
Samford still leads the conference and controls their own destiny to a regular season conference title.
Before round two starts on Saturday at Chattanooga, let’s dive into Samford basketball by the numbers through just these first nine SoCon games.
Positives
Offensive efficiency (117.2, 1st)
Samford is undefeated when scoring 75 or more points this season. At Furman, Samford scored 68 points. Samford continues to excel on the offensive end by moving the ball and putting players in the best spots to make plays. The depth and unselfish nature of this team continues to shine as is evident in the last two games. This team does not take bad looks and maximizes every possession.
Achor Achor has only scored 10 points in his last two games and Samford won both contests. Nathan Johnson had 18 at ETSU, then Dallas Graziani and Garrett Hicks combined for 27 in the Wofford win. Also when you play at the pace Samford does (2nd in adjusted tempo in SoCon play), having this ability to score the way this team does is impressive. Any given night a player can get theirs and lead this team to victory.
Offensive 3-Point Percentage (40.8%, 1st)
Some observers might see that Samford just shoots a bunch of threes and that is the offense. Through SoCon play, Samford has attempted the sixth most threes. They could shoot more honestly but when they do, they are deadly. In the win against Wofford, they made 12 threes and every one was important. Even Dallas Graziani was on going 3-for-4 against Wofford.
Nathan Johnson was perfect at ETSU, Rylan Jones made some big threes at ETSU also. Achor Achor is shooting 52% from three, AJ Staton-McCray is at 44%. In a smaller sample size, Garrett Hicks has improved in SoCon play. We did not even mention Chandler Leopard who can get hot. Samford can just hit you in so many ways from many different players in being deadly from the outside. We will see if that carries over throughout the second half of this season.
Turnovers Forced/Turnover Margin (157, +5.78, 1st)
The success of Bucky Ball is also predicated on the amount of turnovers forced. Samford excels greatly in that area. Samford has forced 157 turnovers over these nine games, Furman is the next closest team at 117. The ability to speed teams up and therefore lead to easy baskets has propelled Samford in these close games. It is extremely hard to win in this league and you want every scoring opportunity possible.
Samford has also cut down on the turnovers as they rank sixth in the SoCon in total turnovers, 105. Throughout this first round, Samford has been more crisp on offense for the most part. There is still much improvement to see in this area but it is a sign of progress.
Negatives
Rebounding Margin (-2.7, 8th)
This was an issue in the non-conference slate that has carried over into these first nine games. Samford sits eighth in the SoCon in defensive rebounding percentage. Samford also sits eighth in rebounding margin and ninth in total defensive rebounds. Yes their best rebounder in Jermaine Marshall has not played in league play.
Especially in March, allowing more offensive rebounds just adds more possessions for the other team and can increase scoring runs. That and your opponent’s momentum are two main things you have to avoid in the win or go home games. We will see how Samford improves when they are back at full strength in a couple weeks.
Opponent 3-Point Percentage (40.1%, 10th)
This was a point of emphasis in our discussion before the season. In a great three-point shooting league, how will Samford fare in that category this season? Well, they have been struggling. Wofford made 17 threes last night, Furman made 12 in Samford’s lone loss.
Teams have been getting great looks when they break the press and Achor Achor is back there trying to decide to leave the ball or go cover the shooter in the corner. Samford also struggled rotating on defense in the half court which also leads to great looks. Wofford made Samford pay last night but Samford still found a way to win. Samford has good defenders and can play multiple guys to assist with this.
Samford is still on track to have the best season in school history but this back half has two tough road games to start. How the Bulldogs fare at Chattanooga and at UNCG will set the tone for the rest of this conference season. If Samford gets both of these, then look out.
One big question is the availability of Jermaine Marshall. When will he be fully ready from his meniscus tear? With the way this team is playing, there is no need to rush him back. Yes, we identified areas where his return will improve this team. However, you want him to finish the season when he returns and not have a setback.
For the fans out there, enjoy the ride. There are only four home games left starting when Western Carolina comes to Homewood on Valentine’s Day. Get out to the Hanna Center if you have not already.
The ride will be fun, it’s a movement. Be sure to follow all of our content on social and the State of the Bulldogs Podcast is available every Wednesday on Apple and Spotify.
